U.S. switches method to estimate China’s soy imports after data gap [Video]

By Tom Polansek

CHICAGO, March 14 (Reuters) – The U.S. Department of Agriculture has started using global exporters’ data to estimate China’s soybean imports because a wide gap emerged between shipping figures from producing nations and Chinese customs data, a USDA official told Reuters.

The change in methodology comes at a sensitive time for U.S.-China relations and as China is trying to improve its food security plans to rely less on imports.

China is the world’s biggest soybean importer and tracking its demand is important for world commodity prices.

Chinese customs data that USDA historically used to estimate imports had previously aligned with export data from producers like the U.S. and Brazil, said Joanna Hitchner, who oversees soybean supply and demand estimates for USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. But the numbers began deviating in 2023, and the USDA this month increased its estimate for China’s 2022-2023 imports by 3.6% from February to reflect exporters’ data, she said.

“We prefer to use China customs …