2024 Market Forecast: Bullish Dreams or Bearish Realities [Video]

The crypto market started its recovery in 2023, with Bitcoin rising from $16,000 to $42,000 — a 162% increase in value. Meanwhile, Ethereum almost doubled from $1,200 to $2,200. For context, the NASDAQ Composite gained 44% during this time, the S&P 500 rose 24%, and gold was up just ~15%.

As we look ahead to 2024, there is an important factor to consider — a U.S. presidential election year. At first, this may not seem significant. However, analysis by Morningstar and Ibbotson Associates reveals an intriguing trend. 

They analyzed how the S&P 500 performed during all U.S. presidential election years from 1928 to 2016. Out of the 23 election years analyzed, the S&P 500 went up in 19. It means the S&P 500 rose in about 83% of presidential election years over that period.

This study did not examine the data from the most recent election year, 2020. However, the pattern persisted as the S&P 500 index rose by 16%.

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